The Record-Breaking Deal That Defied Logic

When the San Francisco Giants committed $182 million over seven years to shortstop Willy Adames in December 2024, the baseball world questioned the logic. The deal - featuring a $22 million signing bonus and $26 million average annual value - represented both the largest contract in franchise history and a significant risk for a player entering his age-29 season with documented injury concerns.

The On-Field Decline

Through May 2025, Adames' performance has validated critics:

• .218 batting average (45 points below 2024)
• .635 OPS (15% below league average)
• 27.4% strikeout rate (career-high)
• -2 Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop

These numbers place Adames among MLB's bottom-five offensive shortstops, a stark contrast to his 2024 All-Star campaign with Milwaukee.

Financial Repercussions

The Giants' payroll strategy now faces critical challenges:

• 12.6% of 2025 payroll dedicated to underperforming player
• No-trade clause complicates potential moves
• $161 million remaining through 2031
• Blocked development of top prospect Marco Luciano

Comparative Market Failures

Front office miscalculations become evident when comparing contracts:

• Francisco Lindor (Mets): $34.1M AAV - .285 AVG, 5.2 WAR
• Corey Seager (Rangers): $32.5M AAV - .327 AVG, 6.8 WAR
• Adames: $26M AAV - .218 AVG, 0.7 WAR

The Path Forward

San Francisco faces limited options:

1. Hope for dramatic mid-season turnaround
2. Absorb salary in trade while losing prospects
3. Bench expensive veteran for younger players

A Cautionary Tale

This situation echoes previous franchise missteps like Barry Zito's $126 million deal, highlighting the dangers of:

• Overvaluing career-year performances
• Ignoring positional prospect pipelines
• Misjudging age-related decline curves