The Boston lefty has been vintage Chris Sale this month, racking up double-digit strikeouts in his last two starts. His slider is generating a 42% whiff rate – the highest of his career – and he’s facing a Pirates lineup that’s struck out 24 times against left-handed breaking balls in the past week. Pittsburgh’s cleanup hitter, Ke’Bryan Hayes, has a 31% strikeout rate against sliders this season. Unless the Red Sox pull Sale early for pitch count management, this over hits by the 6th inning.

Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers) - Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Don’t let the modest line fool you. Gonsolin’s splitter has been untouchable since his return, holding batters to a .087 average. Arizona’s lineup has three regulars (Martorella, Perdomo, Thomas) with strikeout rates over 28% against right-handed splitters. At plus money, this is a sneaky good play – the Diamondbacks have whiffed 11 times per game against similar pitchers this month.

Pablo Lopez (Twins) - Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)

While Lopez’s ERA sparkles, his last three starts tell the real story: 5.2 innings per outing with just 18 total strikeouts. The Giants have the league’s second-lowest chase rate on curveballs (Lopez’s money pitch), and their lineup features five batters with sub-20% strikeout rates. Unless Lopez suddenly finds an extra 15 pitches in his tank, this under cashes comfortably.

Hitter Spotlight: Riding the Aaron Judge Wave

Aaron Judge (Yankees) - Over 0.5 HRs (+190)

The numbers are cartoonish:

• 9 HRs in his last 14 games

• .510 expected slugging vs. fastballs (Oakland’s starters throw 64% heaters)

• 93 mph average exit velocity on road games

Oakland Coliseum’s right-field porch plays smaller during day games, and Judge has launched 4 of his last 6 homers to that exact zone. At nearly 2/1 odds, this is Sunday’s premier power play.

DFS Building Blocks: Where to Spend and Save

Premium Play: Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) $21,870
The strikeout upside here is nuclear – Crochet’s 15.3 K/9 rate leads all Sunday starters. He faces a Nationals lineup that’s struck out 13 times in 2 of their last 3 games against lefties. Projection: 22.5 DK points

Value Gem: Bradley Blalock (Rockies) $6,320
This is all about matchup hunting. The Rockies’ rookie faces a Marlins team that’s batting .197 against curveballs (Blalock’s best pitch). At minimum price, he needs just 4 strikeouts to hit value.

Game-Changing Factors You Can’t Ignore

Wind Alert:

• 13 mph gusts blowing out to left in Oakland (boosts righty pull hitters like Judge)

• Calm conditions in Milwaukee (favor contact hitters over power bats)

Umpire Tendencies:
Lance Barksdale’s strike zone has been 8% larger than average this season – target pitchers with strong command (Gonsolin, Sale) in his games.

The Smart Bettor’s Checklist

1. Check lineups 90 minutes before first pitch – several teams are resting regulars on getaway days

2. Monitor Chicago’s game for rain (40% chance of delay)

3. Look for live betting opportunities on pitchers facing lineups a third time through the order

Sunday’s slate offers hidden value everywhere – from Gonsolin’s comeback narrative to Judge’s video game numbers. Trust the metrics, respect the weather, and don’t overthink the proven performers. Let the numbers guide you to the payout window.