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MLB Player Props & Best Bets: Sunday, May 25

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Table of Contents

Key Matchups and Data-Driven Picks

1:35 PM ET - Brewers vs Pirates: Rookie Showdown

Milwaukee's Logan Henderson brings his league-leading 1.69 ERA against Pittsburgh's struggling offense. The rookie's 23 Ks in 17 IP and minimal walks make him a quality start candidate. Pirates' Bailey Falter shows surface-level success (1 ER last 16.2 IP) but his 4.58 xFIP signals impending regression.

Smart Plays:

- Brewers ML (-130): Yelich & crew should exploit Falter's .247 BABIP
- F5 Under 4.5 (-110): Both starters dominate early innings

4:10 PM ET - Phillies vs Athletics: Power Potential

Oakland's Nick Kurtz faces Michael Lorenzen's HR-prone pitching (8 HRs in 45.1 IP). Advanced models show 10% HR probability (+1200 odds) - a 31% value play. Recent .556 avg surge suggests growing confidence despite park factors.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets: Sunday,May 25 – Key Matchups and Data-Driven Picks

Prop Special:

- Kurtz HR (+1200): .727 SLG vs Lorenzen-type pitchers justifies risk

7:10 PM ET - Dodgers vs Mets: Weather Factor

Citi Field's 60°F temps and crosswinds favor pitchers. Gavin Stone's 2.83 road ERA meets Sean Manaea's 3.38 home mark. Ohtani's power (54 HRs) faces Mets' 25% home K rate while Lindor battles Stone's 168-K Arsenal.

Weather Watch:

- Total Under 8.5 (-105): Conditions align with "unders" system trends

Final Insights

Prioritize Milwaukee's bounce-back potential, Kurtz's power upside, and weather-driven scoring trends. Monitor lineup changes - key injuries like Nimmo's plantar fasciitis could impact late-game dynamics.